Knowing what they know today, if House Democrats move forward on the impeachment of President Trump, five things will happen.
This from Karl Rove at Fox News,
First, swing voters will conclude the Democrats are conducting a highly partisan exercise.
Second, impeachment talk will largely or completely obscure anything else House Democrats will do legislatively. Voters could decide the Democrats are a do-nothing bunch.
Third, impeachment will play a much larger role in the Democratic presidential primary. The issue of impeachment will obscure the other messages of the Democratic presidential hopefuls and raise the prospect of a backlash against candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who have yet to embrace impeachment.
Fourth, the Republican Senate will quickly dismiss any impeachment resolution passed by the House, killing the issue.
And finally, any of the dozens of vulnerable House Democrats in Republican-leaning districts who back impeachment will have given their GOP opponents a big issue.
Though neither is guaranteed, two other things might happen if House Democrats move to impeach Trump. A vote on impeaching the president could increase the antagonism between the Democratic Party’s pro-impeachment faction and Democrats who view impeachment as a losing issue.
And rather than inflaming Democrats, the GOP Senate’s virtually certain decision to kill any impeachment resolution could cause a significant number of discouraged Democrats to stay home on Election Day. Democrats strongly opposed to Trump might feel their party did not fight early, hard or effectively enough to impeach the president.
So the president and his defenders should stop paying attention to Mueller and his Wednesday news conference.
Unintentionally (because he’s a law enforcement professional and not political), Mueller’s actions again disappointed the Democratic firebrands who want Trump impeached. In the same way, the Mueller report failed to live up to the expectations of the Democratic Party’s Dump Trump wing.
Still, I think Judiciary Committee Chair Jerrold Nadler of New York, Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff of California, Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters of California and some other Democrats will keep pressing for impeachment.
But imagine how Americans might react to the Democratic argument that the president should be removed from office because he obstructed justice when there was no underlying offense to hide, and no corrupt intent behind his demands regarding the Mueller investigation that were issued out of frustration and never carried out.
Swing voters want the federal government to work. They want Congress and the president to focus on the big challenges America faces, not to spend all their energy in hyper-partisan activity.
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